Thu, 11 Mar 2010
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SA REGIONAL




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INFORMATION




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MODELS

IMPORTANT NOTICE

Dear valued 1stweather.com visitor!

The Medium Range Forecasts (MRF) model is no longer used for our plots. We have changed over to the new Global Forecast System model (GFS) which is a combination of the AVN (Aviation) and MRF plots. The resolution has increased to 1° x 1° for Day1 (00hours) to Day 8 (180hrs), and to 2.5 x 2.5 from Day 9 (192hrs) to DAY 17 (384hrs).

Owing to rising hosting costs and other operational costs, we no longer offer these plots free of charge. We now offer a new improved plots via a subscription service.

For an example of what there is to offer, click on the link below:

You will find all the information regarding our new system of plots, including pricing and sign-up information. We've added many new variables, and updated and modified many of our existing plots.

NOTE:

We will still offer the current AVN products free of charge - these maps are valid for up to 24hrs only!

CURRENT SUBSCRIBERS

Forgotten your password? Merely enter your sign-up email address and you will receive your password via email!

YOUR EMAIL ADDRESS


WHAT ARE MODELS?

Models are computer programs that predict the weather from data that is collected from the field. Data is fed into computer models which are highly complex mathematical algorithms or better known as numerical models which try and take into account all the possible meteorological variables to predict the growth, decay and speed of weather phenomena as well as temperatures, pressures, winds, etc. for periods from 12 hrs to 20 days in the future.

The models are only as accurate as the data that is fed into them and none are 100% correct and will never ever be able to 100% predict the weather owing to the fact that a certain element of chaos exists in nature that CANNOT be predicted.

Certain models are better than others - links to certain models and their various outputs are given. Most sources of data are similar. For this site's purposes, most data either is sourced from the SAWB or the NWS (National Weather Service of the USA).

SOURCE PRODUCT
NCEP
USA

24-186hr forecasts

250mb Winds, 500mb Hgts & Hgt Tendencies,
700mb Hgts & Precipitable Water,
925mb Winds & Mean Sea-Level Pressure
 |  Latest + 1 day + 2 day + 3 day + 4 day + 5 day + 6 day 
Precipitation forecast
  • 1 - 4days ahead
  • 5-7 days ahead + total weekly expected rainfall
  • FNOC, USA GLOBAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
    Current | Climate | Anomaly
    GLOBAL WAVE HEIGHTS
    current | + 12-hrs | + 1-day | + 36-hrs | + 2-days |
    + 60-hrs | + 3-days | + 84-hrs | + 4-days |
    + 108-hrs | + 5-days | + 132-hrs | + 6-days |
    All images/1STWX/old
    SOUTH ATLANTIC OCEAN WAVE HEIGHTS
    current | + 12-hrs | + 1-day | + 36-hrs | + 2-days |
    + 60-hrs | + 3-days | + 84-hrs | + 4-days |
    + 108-hrs | + 5-days | + 132-hrs | + 6-days |
    All images/1STWX/old
    INDIAN OCEAN WAVE HEIGHTS
    current | + 12-hrs | + 1-day | + 36-hrs | + 2-days |
    + 60-hrs | + 3-days | + 84-hrs | + 4-days |
    + 108-hrs | + 5-days | + 132-hrs | + 6-days |
    All images/1STWX/old
    RSMAS, USA SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
    - West and East southern Africa
    SAWB, RSA - Monthly outlooks, etc
    COLA/IGES MRF, USA - 10 day temperature outlook
    - 10 day precipitation outlook
    - 14 day soil moisture outlook
    - 2-6 day forecasts

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    Goodstuff



    Goodstuff
    ALEXANDER BAY 28/18
    ALLDAYS 34/20
    BEAUFORT WEST 33/19
    BELA-BELA 33/19
    BETHLEHEM 29/12
    BISHO 29/19
    BLOEMFONTEIN 34/18
    CALVINIA 30/16
    CAPE ST LUCIA 29/23
    CAPE TOWN 23/18
    CLANWILLIAM 29/17
    DE AAR 34/20
    DURBAN 29/22
    EAST LONDON 29/23
    ERMELO 28/10
    FAURESMITH 34/19
    FICKSBURG 29/12
    GEORGE 27/19
    GRAAF-REINETT 30/18
    GRAHAMSTOWN 28/20
    HERMANUS 25/18
    JOHANNESBURG 30/14
    JOUBERTINA 26/19
    KIMBERLEY 34/21
    KLERKSDORP 32/17
    KOMATIPOORT 30/17
    KROONSTAD 32/14
    LADYSMITH 28/11
    LANGEBAAN 25/19
    LEPHALALE 34/19
    LYDENBURG 28/13
    MAFIKENG 33/21
    MUSINA 35/21
    NELSPRUIT 28/14
    NEWCASTLE 28/11
    OUDTSHOORN 29/19
    PAARL 28/16
    PHALABORWA 35/21
    PIETERMARITZBURG 30/16
    PLETTENBERG BAY 25/21
    POLOKWANE 31/16
    PORT ALFRED 27/21
    PORT ELIZABETH 28/23
    PORT ST JOHNS 28/19
    POTCHEFSTROOM 33/14
    PRETORIA 32/16
    QUEENSTOWN 29/15
    RICHARDS BAY 28/23
    ROBERTSON 28/17
    RUSTENBURG 32/17
    SASOLBURG 32/14
    SKUKUZA 31/17
    SOWETO 30/14
    SPRINGBOK 33/16
    STILBAAI 24/20
    SUTHERLAND 29/15
    TZANEEN 31/17
    ULUNDI 30/17
    UMTATA 30/16
    UPINGTON 36/23
    VEREENIGING 32/14
    VREDENDAL 28/17
    VRYBURG 35/21
    WELKOM 34/17
    WITBANK 29/15
    WORCESTER 28/16

     

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