Fri, 30 Jul 2010
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SA REGIONAL




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INFORMATION




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MODELS

IMPORTANT NOTICE

Dear valued 1stweather.com visitor!

The Medium Range Forecasts (MRF) model is no longer used for our plots. We have changed over to the new Global Forecast System model (GFS) which is a combination of the AVN (Aviation) and MRF plots. The resolution has increased to 1° x 1° for Day1 (00hours) to Day 8 (180hrs), and to 2.5 x 2.5 from Day 9 (192hrs) to DAY 17 (384hrs).

Owing to rising hosting costs and other operational costs, we no longer offer these plots free of charge. We now offer a new improved plots via a subscription service.

For an example of what there is to offer, click on the link below:

You will find all the information regarding our new system of plots, including pricing and sign-up information. We've added many new variables, and updated and modified many of our existing plots.

NOTE:

We will still offer the current AVN products free of charge - these maps are valid for up to 24hrs only!

CURRENT SUBSCRIBERS

Forgotten your password? Merely enter your sign-up email address and you will receive your password via email!

YOUR EMAIL ADDRESS


WHAT ARE MODELS?

Models are computer programs that predict the weather from data that is collected from the field. Data is fed into computer models which are highly complex mathematical algorithms or better known as numerical models which try and take into account all the possible meteorological variables to predict the growth, decay and speed of weather phenomena as well as temperatures, pressures, winds, etc. for periods from 12 hrs to 20 days in the future.

The models are only as accurate as the data that is fed into them and none are 100% correct and will never ever be able to 100% predict the weather owing to the fact that a certain element of chaos exists in nature that CANNOT be predicted.

Certain models are better than others - links to certain models and their various outputs are given. Most sources of data are similar. For this site's purposes, most data either is sourced from the SAWB or the NWS (National Weather Service of the USA).

SOURCE PRODUCT
NCEP
USA

24-186hr forecasts

250mb Winds, 500mb Hgts & Hgt Tendencies,
700mb Hgts & Precipitable Water,
925mb Winds & Mean Sea-Level Pressure
 |  Latest + 1 day + 2 day + 3 day + 4 day + 5 day + 6 day 
Precipitation forecast
  • 1 - 4days ahead
  • 5-7 days ahead + total weekly expected rainfall
  • FNOC, USA GLOBAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
    Current | Climate | Anomaly
    GLOBAL WAVE HEIGHTS
    current | + 12-hrs | + 1-day | + 36-hrs | + 2-days |
    + 60-hrs | + 3-days | + 84-hrs | + 4-days |
    + 108-hrs | + 5-days | + 132-hrs | + 6-days |
    All images/1STWX/old
    SOUTH ATLANTIC OCEAN WAVE HEIGHTS
    current | + 12-hrs | + 1-day | + 36-hrs | + 2-days |
    + 60-hrs | + 3-days | + 84-hrs | + 4-days |
    + 108-hrs | + 5-days | + 132-hrs | + 6-days |
    All images/1STWX/old
    INDIAN OCEAN WAVE HEIGHTS
    current | + 12-hrs | + 1-day | + 36-hrs | + 2-days |
    + 60-hrs | + 3-days | + 84-hrs | + 4-days |
    + 108-hrs | + 5-days | + 132-hrs | + 6-days |
    All images/1STWX/old
    RSMAS, USA SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
    - West and East southern Africa
    SAWB, RSA - Monthly outlooks, etc
    COLA/IGES MRF, USA - 10 day temperature outlook
    - 10 day precipitation outlook
    - 14 day soil moisture outlook
    - 2-6 day forecasts

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    Goodstuff



    Goodstuff
    ALEXANDER BAY 26/07
    ALLDAYS 20/12
    BEAUFORT WEST 27/11
    BELA-BELA 20/06
    BETHLEHEM 16/00
    BISHO 21/07
    BLOEMFONTEIN 19/03
    CALVINIA 28/05
    CAPE ST LUCIA 23/15
    CAPE TOWN 25/05
    CLANWILLIAM 28/11
    DE AAR 19/04
    DURBAN 22/13
    EAST LONDON 21/10
    ERMELO 18/03
    FAURESMITH 19/-1
    FICKSBURG 17/01
    GEORGE 21/07
    GRAAF-REINETT 24/05
    GRAHAMSTOWN 21/06
    HERMANUS 22/12
    JOHANNESBURG 16/06
    JOUBERTINA 24/06
    KIMBERLEY 20/02
    KLERKSDORP 19/04
    KOMATIPOORT 23/17
    KROONSTAD 19/04
    LADYSMITH 19/03
    LANGEBAAN 17/13
    LEPHALALE 22/11
    LYDENBURG 14/07
    MAFIKENG 19/08
    MUSINA 20/13
    NELSPRUIT 17/11
    NEWCASTLE 18/04
    OUDTSHOORN 26/04
    PAARL 26/11
    PHALABORWA 22/13
    PIETERMARITZBURG 22/08
    PLETTENBERG BAY 19/10
    POLOKWANE 16/08
    PORT ALFRED 21/09
    PORT ELIZABETH 21/08
    PORT ST JOHNS 19/14
    POTCHEFSTROOM 19/02
    PRETORIA 17/09
    QUEENSTOWN 19/05
    RICHARDS BAY 23/16
    ROBERTSON 26/06
    RUSTENBURG 19/07
    SASOLBURG 18/06
    SKUKUZA 24/12
    SOWETO 15/06
    SPRINGBOK 27/20
    STILBAAI 22/09
    SUTHERLAND 23/-2
    TZANEEN 14/10
    ULUNDI 21/10
    UMTATA 19/07
    UPINGTON 29/08
    VEREENIGING 17/04
    VREDENDAL 27/12
    VRYBURG 22/02
    WELKOM 20/04
    WITBANK 15/07
    WORCESTER 26/07

     

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