Thu, 24 Jul 2008
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INFORMATION




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MODELS

IMPORTANT NOTICE

Dear valued 1stweather.com visitor!

The Medium Range Forecasts (MRF) model is no longer used for our plots. We have changed over to the new Global Forecast System model (GFS) which is a combination of the AVN (Aviation) and MRF plots. The resolution has increased to 1° x 1° for Day1 (00hours) to Day 8 (180hrs), and to 2.5 x 2.5 from Day 9 (192hrs) to DAY 17 (384hrs).

Owing to rising hosting costs and other operational costs, we no longer offer these plots free of charge. We now offer a new improved plots via a subscription service.

For an example of what there is to offer, click on the link below:

You will find all the information regarding our new system of plots, including pricing and sign-up information. We've added many new variables, and updated and modified many of our existing plots.

NOTE:

We will still offer the current AVN products free of charge - these maps are valid for up to 24hrs only!

CURRENT SUBSCRIBERS

Forgotten your password? Merely enter your sign-up email address and you will receive your password via email!

YOUR EMAIL ADDRESS


WHAT ARE MODELS?

Models are computer programs that predict the weather from data that is collected from the field. Data is fed into computer models which are highly complex mathematical algorithms or better known as numerical models which try and take into account all the possible meteorological variables to predict the growth, decay and speed of weather phenomena as well as temperatures, pressures, winds, etc. for periods from 12 hrs to 20 days in the future.

The models are only as accurate as the data that is fed into them and none are 100% correct and will never ever be able to 100% predict the weather owing to the fact that a certain element of chaos exists in nature that CANNOT be predicted.

Certain models are better than others - links to certain models and their various outputs are given. Most sources of data are similar. For this site's purposes, most data either is sourced from the SAWB or the NWS (National Weather Service of the USA).

SOURCE PRODUCT
NCEP
USA

24-186hr forecasts

250mb Winds, 500mb Hgts & Hgt Tendencies,
700mb Hgts & Precipitable Water,
925mb Winds & Mean Sea-Level Pressure
 |  Latest + 1 day + 2 day + 3 day + 4 day + 5 day + 6 day 
Precipitation forecast
  • 1 - 4days ahead
  • 5-7 days ahead + total weekly expected rainfall
  • FNOC, USA GLOBAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
    Current | Climate | Anomaly
    GLOBAL WAVE HEIGHTS
    current | + 12-hrs | + 1-day | + 36-hrs | + 2-days |
    + 60-hrs | + 3-days | + 84-hrs | + 4-days |
    + 108-hrs | + 5-days | + 132-hrs | + 6-days |
    All images/1STWX/old
    SOUTH ATLANTIC OCEAN WAVE HEIGHTS
    current | + 12-hrs | + 1-day | + 36-hrs | + 2-days |
    + 60-hrs | + 3-days | + 84-hrs | + 4-days |
    + 108-hrs | + 5-days | + 132-hrs | + 6-days |
    All images/1STWX/old
    INDIAN OCEAN WAVE HEIGHTS
    current | + 12-hrs | + 1-day | + 36-hrs | + 2-days |
    + 60-hrs | + 3-days | + 84-hrs | + 4-days |
    + 108-hrs | + 5-days | + 132-hrs | + 6-days |
    All images/1STWX/old
    RSMAS, USA SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
    - West and East southern Africa
    SAWB, RSA - Monthly outlooks, etc
    COLA/IGES MRF, USA - 10 day temperature outlook
    - 10 day precipitation outlook
    - 14 day soil moisture outlook
    - 2-6 day forecasts

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    Goodstuff



    Goodstuff
    ALEXANDER BAY 19/09
    ALLDAYS 22/05
    BEAUFORT WEST 23/17
    BELA-BELA 22/02
    BETHLEHEM 17/-3
    BISHO 26/15
    BLOEMFONTEIN 19/02
    CALVINIA 19/09
    CAPE ST LUCIA 24/11
    CAPE TOWN 16/11
    CLANWILLIAM 20/11
    DE AAR 20/07
    DURBAN 24/11
    EAST LONDON 27/17
    ERMELO 17/02
    FAURESMITH 19/01
    FICKSBURG 17/-2
    GEORGE 22/16
    GRAAF-REINETT 26/14
    GRAHAMSTOWN 26/15
    HERMANUS 18/15
    JOHANNESBURG 17/03
    JOUBERTINA 27/15
    KIMBERLEY 20/08
    KLERKSDORP 19/03
    KOMATIPOORT 23/08
    KROONSTAD 18/01
    LADYSMITH 21/03
    LANGEBAAN 17/11
    LEPHALALE 22/04
    LYDENBURG 18/02
    MAFIKENG 18/04
    MUSINA 22/10
    NELSPRUIT 23/10
    NEWCASTLE 21/04
    OUDTSHOORN 23/18
    PAARL 17/13
    PHALABORWA 22/14
    PIETERMARITZBURG 25/08
    PLETTENBERG BAY 27/21
    POLOKWANE 19/02
    PORT ALFRED 27/17
    PORT ELIZABETH 24/15
    PORT ST JOHNS 28/16
    POTCHEFSTROOM 20/02
    PRETORIA 20/05
    QUEENSTOWN 25/06
    RICHARDS BAY 26/14
    ROBERTSON 20/14
    RUSTENBURG 20/06
    SASOLBURG 19/01
    SKUKUZA 23/12
    SOWETO 17/03
    SPRINGBOK 18/08
    STILBAAI 22/16
    SUTHERLAND 13/07
    TZANEEN 20/06
    ULUNDI 24/08
    UMTATA 27/06
    UPINGTON 25/11
    VEREENIGING 18/01
    VREDENDAL 20/10
    VRYBURG 21/00
    WELKOM 20/03
    WITBANK 16/05
    WORCESTER 17/13

     

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