 |
Updated bi-MONTHLY
CLIMATE IMPACT PREDICTIONS
Long-range climate outlooks for southern Africa since 1991
Prof Mark R Jury
Environmental Studies Dept, University of Zululand
CLIMATE SYNOPSIS (up to October 2007)
A number of global and regional climate indicators are favourable to neutral.
Indian Ocean: sea temperatures are cold in the east and warm in the west and winds are easterly across the middle – a negative influence on southern Africa weather.
Atlantic Ocean: sea temperatures are neutral but upper winds are favourable – reflecting the La Nina in the Pacific.
Sea temperatures in the Pacific exhibit a La Nina event and the southern oscillation index is weak positive, thus favourable.
Stratospheric winds are unfavourable (easterly).
MODEL GUIDANCE
Forecasts, based on statistical models, expressed as % departure from the mean, with error bars of +/– 15%.
Southern Africa rainfall (November 2007 to March 2008) : +15% slightly above normal
Malaria in eastern regions : +10% slightly increased transmission
FORECAST SUMMARY
A normal to slightly wet summer is expected, with Pacific and Indian Ocean influences conflicting.
OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE
The ECMWF seasonal forecast site is:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/charts/groupp/seasonal_charts_public_2tm/
The SAWS long-range forecast site is:
http://www.weathersa.co.za/Menus/WXandClimate.jsp#LongRange
This prediction service is offered free-of-charge.
NO LIABILITY ACCEPTED
(Issued at : Tue Oct 2 6:36:59 2007
)
|
